USDA Grain Stocks showed September 1 soybean inventories at 315.1 million bushels, with 71% held off-farm. Central Illinois elevator prices averaged $12.96 per bushel in September, up from $12.08 in August and $9.84 a year earlier.
Tight stocks and slow harvest progress are supporting soybean prices, while the USDA production upgrade for 2026-27 could cap rallies going forward.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.