USDA projects US soybean production will fall in marketing year 2025-26, with planted area cut 3.1 million acres to 84 million. The decline reflects a shift toward corn, based on soybean-to-corn price ratios below 2.3, and rising competition from Brazil, which supplied 60% of China's soybean imports.
Corn plantings are forecast up 3.4 million acres to 94 million.
A smaller US soybean crop supports prices, but Brazil's growing export share caps the upside and limits US export demand.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.