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USDA released its 10-year agricultural baseline projections, which expect US corn production to grow as yield gains offset slightly declining acreage. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise from 11.6 percent in 2023/24 to 16.0 percent in 2026/27.
Corn used for ethanol is expected to decline slightly over the projection period.
Rising stocks-to-use and slightly declining ethanol corn use point to looser corn balance sheets over time, which is bearish for corn prices in the medium term.
farmpolicynews.illinois.eduKeith GoodFeb 16, 2023After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
