
USDA's October report raised the 2017 U.S. corn crop to 14.280 billion bushels with a 171.8 bu/ac yield, up from September. Soybean production was pegged at a record 4.431 billion bushels, with the yield trimmed to 49.5 bu/ac from 49.9.
A larger corn crop estimate is bearish for corn prices, while the slightly lower soybean yield is a small offset to the record soybean supply, leaving both markets with ample stocks.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.