USDA's December report cut 2017/18 U.S. corn ending stocks to 2.437 billion bushels from 2.487 billion, on higher ethanol use. Wheat ending stocks were set at 960 million bushels after lower exports, and soybean stocks matched expectations.
A smaller corn carryout tightens the balance sheet and supports corn prices, while the larger wheat stocks keep wheat supplies ample and prices under pressure.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 497 past report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.5% to +2.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.