USDA lowered US corn ending stocks by 50 million bushels to 2.122 billion, citing higher-than-expected ethanol use. Soybean production in Brazil and Argentina was left unchanged, and Argentine corn was trimmed by 1 million tonnes.
DTN analysts called the US soybean stocks estimate bearish and the corn and wheat estimates slightly bearish.
Smaller corn stocks from stronger ethanol use provide modest support, but the higher soybean and wheat stocks outweigh it. Feed buyers should see soft soybean and wheat prices.
After 770 past neutral report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.