USDA's July WASDE raised 2024-25 U.S. corn production 240 million bushels to 15.1 billion, on 1.5 million more planted acres at an unchanged 181 bu/acre yield. Old-crop and new-crop corn ending stocks were nonetheless cut, with 2024-25 falling to 2.097 billion bushels.
Soybean production was trimmed to 4.435 billion bushels and ending stocks were lowered to 435 million bushels.
Lower corn ending stocks on higher feed and export demand tighten the U.S. corn balance and support prices, while the smaller soybean stocks are a neutral-to-supportive signal. The wheat stock and production revisions point to heavier supplies and lower wheat prices.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.