
USDA's June 12 WASDE report lowered U.S. corn ending stocks for both 2024/25 and 2025/26 after raising old-crop exports. The 2025/26 corn carryout fell to 1.75 billion bushels, below the average trade estimate, while U.S. soybean stocks were held steady.
Tighter corn carryout supports futures and basis, since the export increase draws down supplies that would otherwise carry into the new crop year. Feed buyers should expect firmer corn costs.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.