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USDA's November Crop Production and WASDE reports cut the average US corn yield by 2.6 bu/acre to 175.8, reducing production 215 million bushels to 14.5 billion, and lowered 2020/21 corn ending stocks to 1.7 billion bushels. Soybean production was cut 98 million bushels to 4.17 billion on a 50.7 bu/acre yield, pulling soybean ending stocks to 190 million bushels, while wheat stocks also fell.
Sharply lower US corn and soybean carryouts tighten supply and support prices for corn, soybean meal and other feed ingredients that rely on these crops. DTN analysts called the numbers bullish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat.
dtnpf.comDTN AnalystsNov 10, 2020After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Nov 10 USDA reports cut the corn yield and ending stocks to 1.7 billion bushels, a supply shock that drove the rally within the 5-day window.
