
USDA's October report cut 2020/21 soybean ending stocks to 290 million bushels, down 170 million from September and slightly above the lowest pre-report estimate. The report also trimmed production by 45 million bushels on lower harvested acres, while raising exports by 75 million bushels.
A sharply lower soybean carryout with higher export demand tightens the balance sheet and supports soybean and soymeal prices.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.