
USDA cut its 2020 U.S. corn yield by 3.8 bushels per acre to 172 bushels, reducing production by about 325 million bushels. Soybean ending stocks were lowered to 140 million bushels after a 30 million bushel export increase and a 5 million bushel crush increase.
The corn yield cut removes supply that buyers had expected, supporting corn feed costs. Soybean stocks fell in line with expectations, so the soybean price effect is limited.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.