USDA raised corn used for ethanol by 50 million bushels to 5.525 billion, cutting corn ending stocks to 2.437 billion bushels. Soybean exports were reduced 25 million bushels on competition from Argentina and Brazil, lifting soybean ending stocks to 445 million bushels.
Stronger ethanol demand tightens corn balance sheets, while weaker soybean exports raise carryout and weigh on soybean prices. The shift is a meaningful but not market-moving revision.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.