Iowa Agribusiness Radio reports that USDA's August WASDE put corn ending stocks at 2.18 billion bushels, versus about 1.6 billion expected by the trade. Soybean yield was unchanged and ending stocks were near July levels, while corn, soybeans, meal and wheat all fell sharply after the report.
Corn ending stocks far above trade expectations signal a heavy US feed grain supply, pushing corn and meal prices lower for feed buyers.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Ending stocks of 2.18 billion bushels against about 1.6 billion expected by the trade were a large bearish surprise for corn.