Corn and soybean futures rose after USDA reported Sept. 1 corn stocks of 2.295 billion bushels and soybean stocks of 301 million bushels, both below pre-report estimates.
Wheat futures fell because USDA put wheat stocks and domestic production above expectations. December corn rose about 1% to $3.56 a bushel.
Smaller-than-expected stocks led traders to question USDA's crop estimates and support corn and soybean prices. Heavier wheat supplies weighed on that market.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On Sept 29 USDA put US wheat stocks and production above expectations, triggering a wheat selloff on the last day of the 5-day window (supply surprise).
Friday Sept. 29 USDA Sept. 1 corn stocks came in below estimates and lifted futures, setting up the large price move that carried into the next session.
The USDA Sept. 29 report put wheat stocks and production above expectations, a bearish supply surprise that pressured wheat futures going into the Oct. 2 session.