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Analysts described the May WASDE as bearish across the board, with corn the most bearish. The report used a trend-line corn yield that puts 2019-20 corn ending stocks near 2.5 billion bushels, and old-crop corn stocks rose 65 million bushels to 2.1 billion.
Soybean exports were trimmed by 100 million bushels, which added to ending stocks, while the 970 million bushel 2019-20 soybean ending stocks figure was viewed as optimistic.
Trend-line yields that look too high raise the risk of a later downward yield revision, but for now the larger stocks outlook pressures corn and soybean prices, and a China trade deal could change export flows.
iowaagribusinessradionetwork.comStaff EditorMay 10, 2019After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
