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DTN compared USDA's February U.S. ending stock estimates for 2023/24 with the February 2023 Ag Outlook projections. Corn stocks at 2.172 billion bushels were 16.3% above the year-ago forecast, the second-largest upward overstatement since 2008/09, while wheat and soybean stocks were also above year-ago projections.
Persistently higher-than-projected U.S. stocks suggest the market has been underestimating supply, which supports a bearish outlook for feed grain prices.
dtnpf.comJoel KarlinFeb 13, 2024After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
