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DTN analyst Joel Karlin reviewed historical revisions between May USDA wheat ending stock projections and final figures 18 months later. From 1990 to 2017, final U.S. wheat stocks averaged 42 million bushels above the initial May estimate, mainly because production came in higher.
The analysis is historical context on how far wheat stock estimates typically move, and it does not describe a new supply change, so price impact is limited.
dtnpf.comJoel KarlinMay 24, 2018After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
