USDA cut Brazil's soybean production to 156 million tonnes and corn to 124 million tonnes in the February WASDE, and raised U.S. soybean ending stocks to 315 million bushels, just above pre-report expectations. Analysts said the global balance was slightly bearish for soybeans and corn and neutral for wheat.
The modest South American cuts were not enough to offset higher U.S. stocks, so the report keeps downward pressure on soybean and corn prices.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.