
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Outlook for Principal Field Crops projects Canadian durum output down 7% to 5.4 Mt and oat production up to 3.4 Mt on 1.2 Mha. Dry pea area is forecast up 9%, and overall commodity prices are projected to fall for most field crops.
Lower projected prices and larger Canadian oat and pea supply point to softer feed prices for those crops, while the durum decline is supportive for durum.
After 72 past bearish report events, OATS moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.