Agriculture Canada raised its 2025-26 ending stocks estimates for barley to 1.5 million tonnes and for oats to 750,000 tonnes, following Statistics Canada's larger crop estimates. Price forecasts were left unchanged at $270/t for barley and $305/t for oats.
Larger Canadian barley and oat carryouts add supply and are bearish for feed grain prices, though higher export forecasts partly offset the increase.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.