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Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's December outlook raised Canadian oat ending stocks to 1.150 million tonnes, up 123% from the five-year average. The revision follows Statistics Canada's November estimates showing production of 5.226 million tonnes, up 86% from the 2021 low.
Larger Canadian oat supplies and higher ending stocks add bearish pressure on oat prices and weaken the case for firm feed grain values.
After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.