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The USDA expects U.S. oat ending stocks of 32 million bushels for the current marketing year ending May, slightly below last year. The average farm price estimate is $4.85 per bushel, 15 cents below the January forecast.
A lower season-average price forecast signals softer domestic oat values, while tight ending stocks limit downside.
After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.