
No. 2 Canada Western oats delivered to Winnipeg were $3.48/bu in early March, down from a January high of $3.69/bu, with some southern Manitoba bids near $4/bu. Farm Credit Canada projects a 16% increase in oat acres for 2019 versus Agriculture Canada's 5.3% estimate.
Expected expansion in oat plantings would add supply later in 2019 and could pressure prices as spring approaches. Tight old-crop stocks and attractive prices may keep near-term support firm.
After 72 past bearish report events, OATS moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.