USDA's January WASDE cut Brazil's 2022-23 corn crop by 1 million tonnes to 125 million and Argentina's by 3 million to 52 million. The report left Australian wheat at 36.6 million tonnes and raised Ukraine and EU production, while US corn and soybean harvested area came in below expectations.
Lower South American corn supply tightens the export balance and supports corn and soy prices, while a larger Ukrainian crop partly offsets the wheat impact.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.