
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service lowered its Argentina soybean production forecast to 47.5 million tons, half a million below the February estimate. It raised the old-crop crush estimate to 37.6 million tons and put the new-crop crush at 41 million tons.
The USDA's next supply and demand report is due March 9.
A lower Argentine crop tightens global soybean supply and could draw more US export demand. Higher crush supports meal and oil availability, and the next USDA report is a near-term price catalyst.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.