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USDA's November Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade cut FY2023 agricultural export forecasts by $3.5 billion to $190 billion. Soybean exports were lowered by $2.4 billion on smaller production and South American competition, and corn exports were cut by $600 million.
Lower projected US soybean and corn export volumes point to weaker export demand and more supply available domestically, which is bearish for those futures, though high US corn prices relative to competitors limit the impact.
farmpolicynews.illinois.eduKeith GoodNov 30, 2022After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
