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An analyst commentary on the March WASDE said the U.S. corn balance sheet was tightened on higher export and ethanol demand. The writer questioned the soybean estimates, noting U.S. soybean exports were cut 35 million bushels despite Argentina's production loss.
Lower U.S. soybean export forecasts despite Argentina's shortfall are bearish for soybeans and reduce the case for a soybean rally.
agweek.comAlex Norton, Beeson Inc.Mar 11, 2018After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
