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The November WASDE cut the 2024 US corn and soybean yield estimates, lowering projected 2024-25 carryover stocks. CBOT corn and soybean futures rose briefly after the release but returned to pre-report levels by November 15.
Lower ending stocks signal tighter supplies, which supports prices. However, the rally faded quickly, showing that the market had already priced in much of the reduction.
agweek.comKent ThiesseNov 21, 2024After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
