
The October WASDE left most markets largely unchanged, but soybean yields were cut unexpectedly and the nearby contract rose almost 20 cents. US wheat ending stocks rose slightly while global wheat stocks were tighter, and US corn yields rose above 170 bu/acre.
The surprise soybean yield cut tightens old-crop soybean supplies and supports soybean meal prices for feed use. Wheat remains pressured by ample US and Canadian supplies.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.