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Statistics Canada's production and stocks report surprised the market with bearish data across most commodity categories, as the summer drought did less damage to supplies than expected. USDA's December WASDE made no changes to US 2017-18 production and kept demand changes minimal, leaving large stocks.
Malaysia's palm oil data showed stocks expanding as production grew faster than exports.
Large stocks across wheat, canola and palm oil point to ample supplies heading into the new year. Higher palm oil stocks pressure vegetable oil prices and the broader oilseed complex, which weighs on feed-protein and oil values.
agweek.comAlex Norton, Beeson Inc.Dec 17, 2017After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 96 past bearish report events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
