
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada cut its all-wheat forecast by 1.1 million tonnes to 27.3 million, a five-year low, and lowered durum to 5 million tonnes. Higher Russian wheat estimates pushed Black Sea wheat export prices down to $183 per tonne, the lowest since early June.
Lower Canadian output supports wheat prices in some origins, but larger Russian supplies and cheaper Black Sea offers add competition that weighs on global wheat values.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.