
USDA's May WASDE projected 2020-21 US corn production at 15.995 billion bushels with ending stocks at 3.318 billion, below expectations, after raising exports and food/seed/industrial use. Old-crop corn carryout was 2.098 billion bushels, and soybean production was in line with trade expectations at 4.125 billion bushels.
Ending stocks well above last year and among the highest since 1987-88 point to ample corn supply that weighs on prices, though a smaller-than-expected carryout offers some support and acreage will be key.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.