
The USDA's March WASDE report showed little change in US balance sheets and raised global supply estimates, with larger wheat output from Argentina and Australia. Corn and soybean output from South America also rose from the February report, and the market viewed the report as bearish.
Growing global supplies and higher South American estimates add downward pressure on grain and oilseed prices ahead of the March 31 planting and stocks reports.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.