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The USDA July WASDE set 2020-21 US corn production near 15 billion bushels, in line with expectations after a 5.6 million acre drop in harvested area. Corn ending stocks were cut 675 million bushels to 2.648 billion, while old-crop stocks rose 145 million bushels, and world corn ending stocks fell 22.9 million tonnes to 315 million.
US soybean production came in at 4.135 billion bushels, slightly below trade guesses.
Lower new-crop corn stocks signal tighter supply, but traders still see 2.6 billion bushels as a large burden, so corn prices reacted bearishly. Soybean output slightly below expectations offers modest support for feed meal pricing.
agweek.comMichelle RookJul 10, 2020After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Agweek reports a bearish market reaction to the July 10 WASDE, since production was in line with expectations and old-crop stocks rose, so the supply cut was already priced in and selling followed.
