
USDA cut the 2021-22 U.S. wheat crop by 152 million bushels to 1.746 billion, with hard red spring wheat at 305 million bushels amid Northern Plains drought. Wheat ending stocks fell to 665 million bushels, the lowest since 2013-14, and the season-average price was raised to $6.60.
Corn and soybean numbers were less supportive.
Lowest wheat carryout since 2013-14 and a higher price forecast support wheat values, and tighter wheat supplies may increase feed wheat demand.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.