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USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum projected 2017-18 plantings with wheat and corn area each down about 4 million acres and soybean area up 4.6 million acres. Yield estimates use adjusted trend levels, keeping ending stocks high, and wheat markets are watching dryness in the Plains.
Lower corn and wheat acreage with high projected stocks is bearish, while Plains dryness is a bullish risk for wheat that could tighten supply if it persists.
agweek.comAlex Norton, Beeson Inc.Mar 6, 2017After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
