
Wheat traded choppy to sideways during the week, with Minneapolis December futures near $5.80 and Chicago and Kansas City around $5.10. Russia's deputy agriculture minister cut the all-grain export forecast to 35 million tonnes, then another official said total exports would stay at 39 million, and the USDA raised global stocks.
Conflicting Russian export signals and a higher global stocks estimate leave wheat prices range-bound, with the wheat balance sheet still ambiguous for feed buyers.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.