
The February WASDE raised 2023/24 U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million on lower flour grind, and lowered global wheat ending stocks to 259.4 million tonnes. Global wheat trade was raised on larger exports from Ukraine, Argentina, Australia and Turkey.
Higher global trade and lower world carryout provide mild support for wheat, though the larger U.S. stocks offset most of that effect.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.