
CBOT December soft red winter wheat futures fell to about $5.75 per bushel on October 27, down roughly 28% from late July. The USDA October WASDE showed higher US supplies and ending stocks but global wheat inventories fell 0.5 million tonnes to 258.1 million, the lowest since 2015.
Tighter global stocks could support prices from current lows, though the decline in US wheat futures reflects heavy supplies and weak demand for now.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.