The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall

After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Apr 10, 2026USDA Raises Wheat, Corn and Soy Price Estimates - Farm Policy News+3.8%
• May 24, 2018Change in USDA Wheat Stocks Estimates-0.8%
• May 19, 2020USDA: Wheat Stocks Drop, But Prices Hold+2.0%
• Apr 15, 2026France lowered its estimate for winter wheat acreage-0.6%
• Nov 10, 2020USDA Lowers Corn, Soybean and Wheat Ending Stocks-2.8%

After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.

• May 19, 2020USDA: Wheat Stocks Drop, But Prices Hold+0.2%
• Feb 22, 2018Early Estimates Expect 2018/19 Wheat Production to Fall in the Black Sea - U.S. Wheat Associates+9.1%
• Apr 22, 2019Low wheat prices predicted for the next 10-years-4.8%
• Aug 19, 2025Global wheat exports update: Russia’s wheat exports rise to 732,000 tonnes, while US exports forecast at 875 million bushels - Fastmarkets-1.9%
• Jan 12, 2024W1 Wheat Update: EU Soft Wheat Production Forecast Drops for 204/25 Season; India Projects Record Wheat Production of 114 MMT for 2023/24 MY-1.3%