Early Estimates Expect 2018/19 Wheat Production to Fall in the Black Sea

After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Apr 19, 2018Competing for Acres: 2018/19 Global Wheat Production to Fall - U.S. Wheat Associates+0.3%
• Jun 29, 2017World Wheat Production to Decline in 2017/18 - U.S. Wheat Associates+2.3%
• Sep 19, 2018Weather Continues to Affect Global Wheat Production - U.S. Wheat Associates+0.7%
• Oct 6, 2022USDA takes axe to wheat production estimate | The Western Producer-14.4%
• Mar 29, 2024EU sees soft wheat production falling to four-year low in 2024/25-1.3%

After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Nov 30, 2017USDA Reports Offer Early Snapshots of 2018/19 U.S. Winter Wheat Crop - U.S. Wheat Associates-1.8%
• Apr 12, 2023The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall+1.5%
• Jan 12, 2024W1 Wheat Update: EU Soft Wheat Production Forecast Drops for 204/25 Season; India Projects Record Wheat Production of 114 MMT for 2023/24 MY-1.3%
• Apr 17, 2025France ups soft wheat area estimate-3.6%
• Apr 8, 2025We can expect a larger wheat harvest in the EU this year - Trademagazin-0.7%