USDA's early reports on the 2018/19 U.S. winter wheat crop point to further area reduction, with 2018/19 wheat seedings projected at 45.0 million acres, down from the record low 46.0 million in 2017/18. Analysts expect planted area to fall another 4% to 6%, and a strong dollar is pressuring U.S. wheat demand.
Shrinking U.S. wheat acreage could eventually tighten supplies, but the strong dollar and record global stocks keep near-term price pressure in place.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.