
USDA's April WASDE and Crop Production reports made few changes to U.S. corn and soybean numbers. USDA cut Argentina's 2022-23 corn crop by 3 mmt to 37 mmt but held Brazil's crop at 125 mmt, despite expectations of a higher Brazilian figure.
The Argentine corn cut tightens the South American export outlook, which modestly supports corn prices. The unchanged U.S. balance sheets leave the market waiting for the May report.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.