
USDA's final 2022 crop production estimates, released January 12, came in below November figures for both corn and soybeans, in the US and Iowa. Harvested corn acres were cut 1.6 million from the November estimate, with the largest reductions in drought-hit Plains states.
US corn output was 13.7 billion bushels versus 15.1 billion in 2021.
Lower harvested acres mean drought caused more failed acres than expected, reducing available feed corn and supporting corn and soybean meal prices.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.