
USDA's July WASDE lowered 2025/26 corn production by 115 million bushels to 15.7 billion and raised old-crop corn exports 100 million bushels to a record 2.75 billion. Soybean ending stocks rose 15 million bushels to 310 million, and the report was broadly in line with trade expectations.
Lower corn output and record old-crop exports tighten supplies for feed buyers, though the in-line soybean numbers give little new direction for prices.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.