
USDA cut Brazil's 2023-24 soybean production by 2 million metric tons to 161 million, while raising Brazil's exports by 2 million tons to 99.5 million. USDA also raised U.S. corn exports by 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels.
Overall U.S. ending stocks estimates were roughly neutral.
A smaller Brazilian crop is offset by higher export projections, so the net change to global soybean supply is small. Higher U.S. corn exports tighten the domestic balance slightly.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.