
The July WASDE cut new-crop US corn ending stocks by 170 million bushels to 1.8 billion and old-crop stocks by 125 million to 2 billion. Wheat production was projected at its smallest since 1970/71, and corn, soybean and wheat futures rose sharply on the day.
Analysts say weather in the western Corn Belt now drives the market because supply cushions are thin.
Lower stocks across corn, soybeans and wheat leave little buffer against yield losses, which raises the risk of sharp price moves. Feed costs are likely to stay firm.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.