
ADM Investor Services summarized the April 9 WASDE, which kept U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks unchanged at 2.127 and 350 million bushels. Global wheat stocks spiked above 6 MMT to 283 MMT versus expectations of no change, while global corn and soybean stocks were revised slightly.
The surprise global wheat build is bearish for wheat prices and adds competition in feed markets. Soybean crush increased, supporting domestic meal usage and meal supplies for feed buyers.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.