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Grains fell after USDA's Sept. 30 stocks report showed corn stocks of 1.532 billion bushels versus 1.337 billion expected and soybean stocks near 316 million bushels.
The report also contained revisions to 2024/25 residuals, and analysts estimated a 2025/26 corn carryout well above USDA's figure.
The corn stocks surprise and potential extra harvest pressure point to lower corn and soymeal-linked feed prices in the near term.
admis.comSteve FreedOct 1, 2025After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
