
USDA's June WASDE adjusted 2022/23 ending stocks: old crop corn rose 35 million bushels to 1.452 billion, and soybeans rose 15 million to 230 million. Wheat 2023/24 production was raised 6 million bushels to 1,665 million on higher Hard Red Winter output, and the market reacted with little movement.
A largely neutral USDA report leaves price direction to weather and Black Sea risk, while higher US wheat stocks add modest bearish pressure on wheat.
After 770 past neutral report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.